Why forecasts move

  • Economic growth: Changes income-tax, sales-tax and corporate-tax revenues.
  • Inflation and interest rates: Affect indexed programs, debt charges and nominal revenues.
  • Program uptake: Demand-driven benefits may cost more or less than expected.
  • New decisions: Legislation and policy announcements can alter the plan.
  • Accounting updates: Valuations, provisions and actuarial estimates can move totals.

Which number should a reader use?

Use the latest forecast when discussing the government’s current plan. Use the latest Fiscal Monitor when discussing in-year recorded results. Use the audited Public Accounts when stating what the completed fiscal year ultimately produced.

Always attach a date and source. A number without its vintage can be technically accurate yet badly misleading.

A real-world source mismatch

A spring economic update can project a fiscal-year deficit while a monthly monitor reports recorded activity for that year. The figures may differ because one is a full-year accrual forecast and the other is an in-year administrative result before final adjustments.

The right response is not to choose the preferred number. It is to explain what each number measures and wait for audited results when the question is historical.

Primary sources

Use the official publications below for the latest figures and accounting details.

Editorial note: This page explains public accounting concepts and is not a recommendation for or against any political party, tax, program or borrowing decision.