How to Check a Claim About Canada’s Deficit or Debt

The five questions

1. Which government? Federal, provincial, municipal or consolidated general government?
2. Which measure? Annual deficit, accumulated deficit, net debt, gross debt or market debt?
3. Which period? Fiscal year, calendar year, month or year-to-date?
4. What status? Budget forecast, economic update, Fiscal Monitor or audited actual?
5. What scale? Dollars, per capita, share of revenue or share of GDP?

Common warning signs

• A graph whose axis begins after a major historical event without explanation.
• A forecast presented as an audited result.
• Federal debt compared with another country’s all-government net debt.
• Gross debt in one year compared with net debt in another.
• A per-capita figure described as a literal invoice.
• Maturing bond principal added to annual program spending.

Prefer primary sources

Use Public Accounts for audited annual results, Department of Finance tables for fiscal history and forecasts, Statistics Canada for harmonized government statistics, the Bank of Canada for securities-market data and the Parliamentary Budget Officer for independent analysis.

Commentary can help interpret the numbers, but it should link back to the table being discussed.